When planning the electricity system of the future, various types of models are used to calculate, among other things, how electricity should be produced and how the system can handle disruptions in the most cost-effective way.
In a new scientific article, published in the international journal Energy, a model for this type of analysis is presented that is tailored to the specific conditions that prevail in an electricity system with a high share of hydropower.
The article in Energy lends scientific credibility to the model used in Svenskt Näringsliv’s scenario analyses, which is extremely gratifying.
The study shows that many simplified models present an overly optimistic picture of the future. They often assume that we know in advance exactly how weather, electricity prices, and demand will develop. In reality, these factors vary greatly between years and seasons, especially in countries with large shares of hydropower and wind power, such as Sweden.
The researchers therefore argue that more advanced models are needed—ones that take operational decisions based on price forecasts into account. These models must consider variations in weather, constraints in hydropower, and the need for electricity even in extreme situations, for example during cold and windless winter days. Models that instead assume perfect knowledge of the future risk producing an unrealistic picture of operations, which in turn can lead the simulated electricity system to underestimate the risk of failing to meet demand when it is at its highest.
It is precisely this realistic method that is used in Svenskt Näringsliv’s report Kraftsystem robust för 300 TWh, which analyzes how Sweden can reach an annual electricity consumption of 300 terawatt-hours.
The article in Energy lends scientific credibility to the model used in Svenskt Näringsliv’s scenario analyses, which is especially gratifying given the hard work ahead to secure our energy supply. This does not mean that we can predict exactly what the future will look like. But it does mean that the calculations are serious, well thought out, and based on the same type of research used internationally. That makes the report a credible basis for political decision-making.
An important conclusion is that a future electricity system will need not only more electricity generation, but also sufficient dispatchable (firm) power.
Some of the central conclusions in Svenskt Näringsliv’s report are that it is possible to build a power system capable of meeting a future electricity demand of 300 TWh in several different ways. However, it is important to understand that the choices made will result in different system characteristics and require different conditions. The report also broadens the perspective from the traditional approach, which has a fairly narrow economic focus, to also consider other parameters that are crucial for decisions about our future electricity system, such as feasibility, CO2 emissions, robustness, and so on. It presents a number of possible scenarios for the Swedish electricity system and provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of each scenario, as well as the conditions needed for them to be realized.
An important conclusion is that a future electricity system will need not only more generation, but also sufficient dispatchable power—electricity that can be produced when demand is at its highest. If the need for such capacity is underestimated, the risk of capacity shortages, reduced operational reliability, and increased electricity price volatility rises. These system characteristics are represented particularly realistically in the scientifically reviewed model used, allowing for a holistic analysis of the system’s performance and the trade-offs between risk reduction and system costs.
Now that the report’s methodology has received support from independent scientific review, the focus should shift to the next step: how Sweden can create the right conditions for investments, permitting processes, and long-term planning. The knowledge exists—now it’s about putting it to use.
*This is a translation of an article written by svenktnaringsliv
