In our simulations, both the larger Stockholm area (new O3) and southern Sweden (current SE4) experience lower prices compared to current zoning. For O3, this is primarily due to low-priced imports from Finland during high-wind situations—while still not being as exposed to higher continental prices as the new O2. Southern Sweden (current SE4) would benefit from being part of a larger O2 zone that also connects directly to the low-price region O1. However, the rest of the current SE3 would face higher prices in this setup, as it would more frequently couple to higher continental spot prices.
Sweden as a whole—when weighted by consumption—would see an average spot price reduction of around €1 under the new zoning. East Denmark and northern Norway would also see lower prices, while Finland and southern Norway would experience a slight increase.
These simulations were based on the current (2025) power system and a typical weather and hydro year. However, as our demand projections on slide 3 show, the system is evolving rapidly. O1 is expected to see the most rapid demand growth driven by electrolysis and new industrial activity. O2 follows closely, being the largest in terms of population and existing industrial demand, while O3 is projected to grow mainly through the expansion of data centers.
Do you think such a configuration would benefit Sweden and the Nordic power market?
