Power System Expansion in Germany
As Germany sets its sights on achieving climate neutrality by 2045, the nation stands at the forefront of global efforts to build a sustainable future. Central to this endeavour is the Energiewende, a bold initiative driving a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources while phasing out nuclear power. To catalyse investment and ensure the resilience of this energy transition whilst maintaining competitiveness, Germany requires a steadfast regulatory framework and energy policy capable of withstanding political shifts. Such stability is essential to inspire investor confidence, underpin sustainable investments, and advance successful decarbonisation initiatives.
This study explores diverse pathways to attain a fully decarbonised German power system by 2050. Utilising carefully crafted scenarios, including custom geospatial analysis for wind and solar potential along side grounded assumptions for demand-side flexibility, the analysis showcases varying projections related to crucial technology developments. These scenarios encompass optimistic and conservative viewpoints on parameters such as investment costs, commodity prices, maximum expansion potential, and build rates.
Employing a dedicated multi-year capacity expansion optimisation framework, the study outlines scenarios from 2030 with five-year increments until 2050. With an emphasis on energy resilience, this methodology integrates investment and dispatch optimisation, relying on a comprehensive set of 33historical weather years to ensure the construction of reliable power systems with realistic dispatch schedules and electricity prices. Ultimately, the current study seeks to enhance the existing body of evidence from previous studies tailored to the German context. Furthermore, the study utilises transparent inputs firmly rooted in German-specific conditions. Notably, the current work is one of the first contemporary studies including nuclear to Germany’s technology portfolio.
The cornerstone of energy system decarbonisation is electrification, leading to an inevitable growth in electricity demand. This study employs a single demand scenario that reflects an increase in electricity consumption aligning with the average of demand projections of other sources. Focusing on theproduction side, our modelling approach is anchored in Germany's steadfast commitment to transitioning towards a decarbonised economy. Accordingly, the simulated scenarios follow a decarbonisation pathway driven by ambitious CO₂ emission targets defined by a 99% reduction of power system direct emissions compared to 1990 levels, ultimately reflecting a power sector leading the way towards climate neutrality and assuming that negative emissions are used to address the last 1%.
At the heart of the Energiewende is the deployment of renewable energy sources, accompanied by the phase-out of fossil fuels and nuclear power, aimed at transitioning the German power system to climate neutrality as mandated by the Climate Change Act170. This energy policy, which does not adopt a technology-neutral approach, was scrutinised in the current study through the adoption of four technology pathways: All Tech., No CCS, No Nucl. and No Nucl. No CCS, described in TABLE 1.
